مدل‌های عامل مبنا و کاربرد آن در بررسی خطرات انتقال بیماری‌ همه‌گیر

دادخواه, محمود; بشارتی, نازلی

doi:10.22052/scj.2024.253185.1165

مدل‌های عامل مبنا و کاربرد آن در بررسی خطرات انتقال بیماری‌ همه‌گیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله ترویجی

نویسندگان

گروه ریاضی کاربردی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

10.22052/scj.2024.253185.1165

چکیده

بروز همه‌گیری کووید-19 در جهان، بار دیگر دولت‌ها و مسئولین محلی را با چالشی بزرگ و غیرمترقبه مواجه ساخت. بررسی همه جوانب این همه‌گیری، متخصصین رشته‌های مختلف و به خصوص ریاضی را به عرصه مبارزه با این چالش کشاند. در این بین، مدل‌سازی ریاضی انتقال بیماری به دلیل ماهیت ساده و قابل درک آن و نیز قابلیت اثبات شده آن در کمک به حل موضوعاتی از این دست، اهمیتی دوچندان یافت. مدل‌های مختلف ارایه شده برای بیماری‌های گوناگون، قدرت بررسی و پیشگیری از ایجاد همه‌گیری‌های خطرناک را افزایش می‌دهد. در این مقاله به کمک مدل‌سازی عامل مبنا، نحوه انتشار و انتقال بیماری‌های همه‌گیر (به ویژه در محیط‌های کوچک) را بررسی کرده‌ایم. در مدل بررسی شده، فرآیند انتقال مکانی-زمانی نیز برای هر عامل در نظر گرفته شده است. همچنین تصمیم‌گیری عوامل مورد بررسی، بر اساس قوانینی خواهد بود که برای آنها تهیه شده است. برای تعریف ویژگی‌های اجتماعی اصلی و همچنین شرایط سلامتی مورد استفاده در طول تعامل عوامل با یکدیگر، یک پروفایل فردی برای هر عامل در مدل پیش‌بینی می‌شود. به دلیل انعطاف خوبِ مدل بیان شده، شبیه‌سازی‌های عددی متفاوتی با آن به اجرا گذاشته شده است. از آنچه در این پژوهش به دست آمد می‌توان دریافت که برای کنترل و مقابله با بیماری‌های همه‌گیر و به خصوص در محیط‌های کوچک، چندین عامل باید به صورت جدی مورد توجه قرار گیرد که از آن جمله می‌توان به محدودیت جدی و شدید در جابه‌جایی‌های عوامل، تجمعات آنها و نیز رعایت دستورالعمل‌های بهداشتی و محافظتی (به عنوان مثال استفاده از ماسک و قرنطینه عوامل)، اشاره نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

ریاضی کاربردی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Agent-based models and their application in investigating the risks of epidemic disease transmission

نویسندگان [English]

Mahmood Dadkhah
Nazli Besharati

Department of Mathematics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the world once again faced the governments and local officials with a big and unexpected challenge. Examining all aspects of this epidemic brought experts from different fields, especially mathematics, into the field of fighting this challenge. In the meantime, mathematical modeling of disease transmission has gained double importance due to its simple and understandable nature as well as its proven ability to help solve such issues. Different models presented for different diseases increase the power of investigation and prevention of dangerous epidemics. In this article, with the help of agent-based models, we have investigated the spread and transmission of epidemic diseases (especially in small environments). In the reviewed model, the spatio-temporal transfer process is also considered for each agent. Also, the decision of the investigated agents will be based on the rules prepared for them. To define the main social characteristics as well as the health conditions used during the interaction of the agents with each other, an individual profile is predicted for each agent in the model. Due to the good flexibility of the stated model, different numerical simulations have been implemented with it. From what was obtained in this research, it can be seen that in order to control and deal with epidemic diseases, especially in small environments, several factors must be taken seriously, of which, serious and severe restrictions on the movement of agents, their gatherings and the observance of health and protective instructions (for example, using a mask and quarantine agents) cab be pointed out.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Mathematical modeling
Agent- based models
Epidemic
Disease transmission models
COVID-19

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