Sensitivity Analysis of a Mathematical Fuzzy Epidemic Model for COVID-19

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه فنی و حرفه ای، تهران، ایران

2 گروه ریاضی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

چکیده

In this paper, an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters for spreading Covid-19 in a population is considered.
The sensitivity analysis is used to determine the model robustness to parameter values of model. The basic reproduction number of the epidemic model denoted by $\mathcal{R}_0$ determines the dynamics of the model. Then, in order to examine the relative importance of different parameters in the Covid-19 spread, we derive an analytical expression for the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$, namely sensitivity index, with respect to each parameter involved in the model.
Finally, sensitivity analysis results and the numerical simulations of the model are given with different parameter values.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity Analysis of a Mathematical Fuzzy Epidemic Model for COVID-19

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmood Parsamanesh 1
  • Abbas Akrami 2
1 Technical and vocational university, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of mathematics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this paper, an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters for spreading Covid-19 in a population is considered.
The sensitivity analysis is used to determine the model robustness to parameter values of model. The basic reproduction number of the epidemic model denoted by $\mathcal{R}_0$ determines the dynamics of the model. Then, in order to examine the relative importance of different parameters in the Covid-19 spread, we derive an analytical expression for the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$, namely sensitivity index, with respect to each parameter involved in the model.
Finally, sensitivity analysis results and the numerical simulations of the model are given with different parameter values.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fuzzy number
  • Epidemic model
  • COVID-19
  • Basic reproduction number
  • Sensitivity analysis