بررسی یک مدل اپیدمیک فازی ریاضی برای انتشار ویروس کرونا در یک جمعیت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه ریاضی، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران.

2 گروه ریاضی، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه فنی و حرفه‌ای، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در این مقاله یک مدل اپیدمیک با پارامترهای فازی برای بیماری کرونا ارائه شده است. این مدل با توجه به عامل‌های واکسیناسیون، درمان، اجرای پروتکل‌های بهداشتی و میزان ویروس کرونا ساخته شده است. از پارامترهای فازی برای نرخ سرایت، نرخ بهبودی و نرخ مرگ و میر در این بیماری و در تحلیل مدل از روش ماتریس نسل بعد برای محاسبه عدد مولد پایه و پایداری نقاط تعادل مدل استفاده شده است. شبیه‌سازی نتایج نشان می‌دهد جهش‌های مختلف ویروس کرونا باعث تفاوت در انتشار آن است. همچنان که عامل‌های واکسیناسیون و طرز عمل در اجرای پروتکل‌های بهداشتی به میزان قابل ملاحظه‌ای در کاهش یا توقف انتشار ویروس کرونا در یک جمعیت موثر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of a mathematical fuzzy epidemic model for the spread of corona-virus in a population

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Akrami 1
  • Mahmood Parsamanesh 2
1 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Technical and vocational University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this paper, an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters for COVID-19 is presented. This model is made according to vaccination, treatment, implementation of health protocols and the corona virus load. Fuzzy parameters for transmission rate, recovery rate and mortality rate in this disease have been used. Also, in model analysis, we have used the generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproduction number and the equilibrium stability of the model. Simulation of the results shows that different mutations in the corona virus cause differences in its propagation. In addition, vaccination and practices in the implementation of health protocols are significantly effective in reducing or stopping the spread of coronavirus in a population.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Pandemic
  • Health protocols
  • Fuzzy number
  • Corona
  • mathematical fuzzy epidemic model
  • Vaccination
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